叶子心情

We're well into the current era of the Web, commonly referred to as Web 2.0. Features of this phase of the Web include search, social networks, online media (music, video, etc), content aggregation and syndication (RSS), mashups (APIs), and much more. Currently the Web is still mostly accessed via a PC, but we're starting to see more Web excitement from mobile devices (e.g. iPhone) and television sets (e.g. XBox Live 360).

What then can we expect from the next 10 or so years on the Web? As NatC commented in this week's poll, the biggest impact of the Web in 10 years time won't necessarily be via a computer screen - "your online activity will be mixed with your presence, travels, objects you buy or act with." Also a lot of crossover will occur among the 10 trends below (and more) and there will be Web technologies that become enormously popular that we can't predict now.

Bearing all that in mind, here are 10 Web trends to look out for over the next 10 years...

1. Semantic Web

Sir Tim Berners-Lee's vision for a Semantic Web has been The Next Big Thing for a long time now. Indeed it's become almost mythical, like Moby Dick. In a nutshell, the Semantic Web is about machines talking to machines. It's about making the Web more 'intelligent', or as Berners-Lee himself described it: computers "analyzing all the data on the Web – the content, links, and transactions between people and computers." At other times, Berners-Lee has described it as "the application of weblike design to data" - for example designing for re-use of information.

As Alex Iskold wrote in The Road to the Semantic Web, the core idea of the Semantic Web is to create the meta data describing data, which will enable computers to process the meaning of things. Once computers are equipped with semantics, they will be capable of solving complex semantical optimization problems.

So when will the Semantic Web arrive? The building blocks are here already: RDF, OWL, microformats are a few of them. But as Alex noted in his post, it will take some time to annotate the world's information and then to capture personal information in the right way. Some companies, such as Hakia and Powerset and Alex's own AdaptiveBlue, are actively trying to implement the Semantic Web. So we are getting close, but we are probably a few years off still before the big promise of the Semantic Web is fulfilled.

Semantic Web pic by dullhunk

2. Artificial Intelligence

Possibly the ultimate Next Big Thing in the history of computing, AI has been the dream of computer scientists since 1950 - when Alan Turing introduced the Turing test to test a machine's capability to participate in human-like conversation. In the context of the Web, AI means making intelligent machines. In that sense, it has some things in common with the Semantic Web vision.

We've only begun to scratch the surface of AI on the Web. Amazon.com has attempted to introduce aspects of AI with Mechanical Turk, their task management service. It enables computer programs to co-ordinate the use of human intelligence to perform tasks which computers are unable to do. Since its launch on 2 November 2005, Mechanical Turk has gradually built up a following - there is a forum for "Turkers" called Turker Nation, which appears to have light-to-medium level patronage. However we reported in January that Mturk isn't being used as much as the initial hype period in Nov-Dec 05.

Nevertheless, AI has a lot of promise on the Web. AI techniques are being used in "search 2.0" companies like Hakia and Powerset. Numenta is an exciting new company by tech legend Jeff Hawkins, which is attempting to build a new, brain-like computing paradigm - with neural networks and cellular automata. In english this means that Numenta is trying to enable computers to tackle problems that come easy to us humans, like recognizing faces or seeing patterns in music. But since computers are much faster than humans when it comes to computation, we hope that new frontiers will be broken - enabling us to solve the problems that were unreachable before.

3. Virtual Worlds

Second Life gets a lot of mainstream media attention as a future Web system. But at a recent Supernova panel that Sean Ammirati attended, the discussion touched on many other virtual world opportunities. The following graphic summarizes it well:

Looking at Korea as an example, as the 'young generation' grows up and infrastructure is built out, virtual worlds will become a vibrant market all over the world over the next 10 years.

It's not just about digital life, but also making our real life more digital. As Alex Iskold explained, on one hand we have the rapid rise of Second Life and other virtual worlds. On the other we are beginning to annotate our planet with digital information, via technologies like Google Earth.

4. Mobile

Mobile Web is another Next Big Thing on slow boil. It's already big in parts of Asia and Europe, and it received a kick in the US market this year with the release of Apple's iPhone. This is just the beginning. In 10 years time there will be many more location-aware services available via mobile devices; such as getting personalized shopping offers as you walk through your local mall, or getting map directions while driving your car, or hooking up with your friends on a Friday night. Look for the big Internet companies like Yahoo and Google to become key mobile portals, alongside the mobile operators.

Companies like Nokia, Sony-Ericsson, Palm, Blackberry and Microsoft have been active in the Mobile Web for years now, but one of the main issues with Mobile Web has always been usability. The iPhone has a revolutionary UI that makes it easier for users to browse the Web, using zooming, pinching and other methods. Also, as Alex Iskold noted, the iPhone is a strategy that may expand Apple's sphere of influence, from web browsing to social networking and even possibly search.

So even despite the iPhone hype, in the US at least (and probably other countries when it arrives) the iPhone will probably be seen in 10 years time as the breakthrough Mobile Web device.

5. Attention Economy

The Attention Economy is a marketplace where consumers agree to receive services in exchange for their attention. Examples include personalized news, personalized search, alerts and recommendations to buy. The Attention Economy is about the consumer having choice - they get to choose where their attention is 'spent'. Another key ingredient in the attention game is relevancy. As long as the consumer sees relevant content, he/she is going to stick around - and that creates more opportunities to sell.

Expect to see this concept become more important to the Web's economy over the next decade. We're already seeing it with the likes of Amazon and Netflix, but there is a lot more opportunity yet to explore from startups.

Image from The Attention Economy: An Overview, by Alex Iskold

6. Web Sites as Web Services

Alex Iskold wrote in March that as more and more of the Web is becoming remixable, the entire system is turning into both a platform and the database. Major web sites are going to be transformed into web services - and will effectively expose their information to the world. Such transformations are never smooth - e.g. scalability is a big issue and legal aspects are never simple. But, said Alex, it is not a question of if web sites become web services, but when and how.

The transformation will happen in one of two ways. Some web sites will follow the example of Amazon, del.icio.us and Flickr and will offer their information via a REST API. Others will try to keep their information proprietary, but it will be opened via mashups created using services like Dapper, Teqlo and Yahoo! Pipes. The net effect will be that unstructured information will give way to structured information - paving the road to more intelligent computing.

Note that we can also see this trend play out currently with widgets and especially Facebook in 2007. Perhaps in 10 years time the web services landscape will be much more open, because the 'walled garden' problem is still with us in 2007.

Image from Web 3.0: When Web Sites Become Web Services, by Alex Iskold

7. Online Video / Internet TV

This is a trend that has already exploded on the Web - but you still get the sense there's a lot more to come yet. In October 2006 Google acquired the hottest online video property on the planet, YouTube. Later on that same month, news came out that the founders of Kazaa and Skype were building an Internet TV service, nicknamed The Venice Project (later named Joost). In 2007, YouTube continues to dominate. Meanwhile Internet TV services are slowly getting off the ground.

Our network blog last100 has an excellent overview of the current Internet TV landscape, with reviews of 8 Internet TV apps. Read/WriteWeb's Josh Catone also reviewed 3 of them - Joost, Babelgum, Zattoo.

It's fair to say that in 10 years time, Internet TV will be totally different to what it is today. Higher quality pictures, more powerful streaming, personalization, sharing, and much more - it's all coming over the next decade. Perhaps the big question is: how will the current mainstream TV networks (NBC, CNN, etc) adapt?

Zattoo, from Internet Killed The Television Star: Reviews of Joost, Babelgum, Zattoo, and More, by Josh Catone

8. Rich Internet Apps

As the current trend of hybrid web/desktop apps continues, expect to see RIA (rich internet apps) continue to increase in use and functionality. Adobe's AIR platform (Adobe Integrated Runtime) is one of the leaders, along with Microsoft with its Windows Presentation Foundation. Also in the mix is Laszlo with its open source OpenLaszlo platform and there are several other startups offering RIA platforms. Let's not forget also that Ajax is generally considered to be an RIA - it remains to be seen though how long Ajax lasts, or whether there will be a '2.0'.

As Ryan Stewart wrote for Read/WriteWeb back in April 2006 (well before he joined Adobe), "Rich Internet Apps allow sophisticated effects and transitions that are important in keeping the user engaged. This means developers will be able to take the amazing changes in the Web for granted and start focusing on a flawless experience for the users. It is going to be an exciting time for anyone involved in building the new Web, because the interfaces are finally catching up with the content."

The past year has proven Ryan right, with Adobe and Microsoft duking it out with RIA technologies. And there's a lot more innovation to happen yet, so in 10 years time I can't wait to see what the lay of the RIA land is!

9. International Web

As of 2007, the US is still the major market in the Web. But in 10 years time, things might be very different. China is often touted as a growth market, but other countries with big populations will also grow - India and African nations for example.

For most web 2.0 apps and websites (R/WW included), the US market makes up over 50% of their users. Indeed, comScore reported in November 2006 that 3/4 of traffic to top websites is international. comScore said that 14 of the top 25 US Web properties now attract more visitors from outside the US than from within. That includes the top 5 US properties - Yahoo! Sites, Time Warner Network, Microsoft, Google Sites, and eBay.

However, it is still early days and the revenues are not big in international markets at this point. In 10 years time, revenue will probably be flowing from the International Web.

10. Personalization

Personalization has been a strong theme in 2007, particularly with Google. Indeed Read/WriteWeb did a feature week on Personalizing Google. But you can see this trend play out among a lot of web 2.0 startups and companies - from last.fm to MyStrands to Yahoo homepage and more.

What can we expect over the next decade? Recently we asked Sep Kamvar, Lead Software Engineer for Personalization at Google, whether there will be a 'Personal PageRank' system in the future. He replied:

"We have various levels of personalization. For those who are signed up for Web History, we have the deepest personalization, but even for those who are not signed up for Web History, we personalize your results based on what country you are searching from. As we move forward, personalization will continue to be a gradient; the more you share with Google, the more tailored your results will be."

If nothing else, it'll be fascinating to track how Google uses personalization over the coming years - and how it deals with the privacy issues.

Conclusion

We've covered a lot of ground in this post, so tell us know what you think of our predictions. What other Web trends do you forsee over the next decade? 

昨晚吃饭，废掉两个小朋友的互动提案。看他们悻悻然的样子，有些不忍。但没办法。

在新的产品和策划设计之中，互动环节最不容易搞。现在满世界都在喊UGC，但以我观察，出问题最多也是UGC。常见的问题有：

1、初期：互动门槛设置和用户动力

1.1关于互动门槛：

1.1.1看。在日常的内容处理中，最常见的门槛是看的门槛。看也有门槛？当然。不友好的界面设计，不符合用户需求的新闻处理，令人迷糊的功能设置，都会造成看的门槛。我们的人均页面数不到10，但是我们新闻首页的新闻条数大概在300条左右。其中的差，我就视为是看的门槛。我们高考影像征集的专题，首页流量也在10万以上，但是我们每天有300多万的新闻用户，中间的差额，也是被看的门槛阻挡。

1.1.2说：说的门槛，就是用户对新闻有了反馈，并且通过评论等方式表达出来。在互动产品中，我把让用户用文字的方式表达反馈的门槛统称为说的门槛。再举个例子。《老人被车撞到遭毒打 行凶者全家资料曝光》是现在（15：00-16：00）排在我们读者评论top10第一位的稿件，评论数为11663，这一条新闻的流量大概在300000左右。那么，看这条稿件的人数，和看完之后发表回复的读者人数的比在30：1左右。其中沉默的用户，就是被说的门槛所阻挡的人。平均来说，一条100个人看的新闻，发表回复的只有1人——这还是对网易新闻这样有用户回复习惯的网站而言，其他网站的比例更小。

1.1.3上传：上传图片和视频，门槛大概又会提高10-100倍。

在我们《高考影响征集》的策划中，设计了浏览、上传文字、图片、视频四个门槛。现在统计结果还没给我，但是我估计四个门槛的比例大概是10000：100：10：1。

心得一：目前常见的互动设计中，门槛从低到高是：浏览、调查投票（我们的献花、新浪的心情符也都都该归入投票的范域）、辩论（PK台）、评论回复、上传图片、上传音频、上传视频。

心得二：如果以追求大访问量，或者是期图用户内容再加工。门槛自然是越低越好。调查投票是常被忽略，但是潜力很大的互动项目。在新版本的设计中，投票调查的常规产品设计了两个，我对其效果很自信。

心得三：常听人说，你这产品不灵，门槛太高。这是一句错误的话。youtube门槛够高了吧，一样很灵。正确的思路和评价是：门槛和用户定位是否相仿。如果土豆把用户门槛设置得和网易一样低，肯定玩完。

心得四：用互动门槛来过滤、屏蔽用户，是一个好办法——但是，在目前中国互联网到处都在得陇望蜀，巴不得一夜窜进ALEXA的top10的大环境下，说这个，有点奢侈。

在互动产品设计之初，除了考量门槛高低，还要考虑用户动力。而用户动力=用户预期收益/用户操作成本。说门槛，是在考量用户操作成本的这个分母，提高用户预期收益，也是增加互动产品的参与度、热度的重要环节。

提高用户预期收益的常见方法有：抽奖、积分、头衔、首页曝光、排行榜、用户PK、增加用户网站权限。

2、中期：垃圾信息过滤

用户产生的内容，鱼龙混杂。例如，水帖、广告帖、黄色图片、无光内容。还如：博客文章中不适合大众传播的内容。还说我们的高考影响征集的案例，本来希望用户上传高考时候的照片，但是有大量用户传了垃圾图片、无关图片。这些信息不过滤，最终导致劣币驱逐良币，页面价值低。

我今天玩最近很火的饭否网，饭否很酷，想法也很棒，利用网页、手机、即时通信工具将用户沟通、页面发布成本降到很低。但是我有两个疑问：一，用户之间的交流内容的页面体现价值有多大？换句话说，IM内容有页面传播价值吗？这是不是一个好用不好看的网站？二、IM内容大多是人际传播的内容，对点对点的传播来说，这是有价值的，但是对点对众的大众传播来说，就是垃圾信息，就是信息噪音，怎么搞掉？

2.1过滤垃圾信息最可靠的方法是编辑过滤，但是成本最高。

2.2用户举报也是一个办法，但是如果没有解决用户的举报动力，效果不好；

2.3过滤垃圾信息，换个角度看，其实是提高有价值信息的页面权重的问题。好的内容占据了页面，垃圾信息自然就沉没下去。所以内容呈现上一定要分层；第二，通过推荐浮现；第三，通过用户DIGG顶上优秀内容。我想出一个三级推荐的机制，准备在最近的一个产品中尝试。

3、后期：用户内容呈现
博客网站为什么广告价值低？那是因为在个性化定向广告还只是镜花水月的时代里，博客网站没有高访问量的单一页面。新浪的博客流量已经超过了新闻（据说），但是新浪新闻的广告价值远在博客之上。其关键在于新闻的单一页面的流量惊人，而博客的单一页面流量并不高。网易新闻的数据我掌握，我们随随便便一条新闻的流量也在数十万量级，新闻首页甚至是数百万量级的访问量，这当然有广告价值。

所以问题关键在于博客网站虽然总体访问量大，但是单一访问量低。换个角度看，提高博客广告价值的正道是提高博客首页的含金量；第二、提高圈子首页的访问量。别整天琢磨着在用户的博客上放广告。浪费脑细胞，误国误民。

但是提高博客单一页面的访问量的关键又在于选择“好”的用户内容呈现。好，是指：1、有价值；2、分类；3、自更新。

互动产品更是如此，如果不加选择、分类的展现UGC出来的内容，页面价值为0。所以我现在和大家一讨论互动产品的时候，除了门槛设定，第二强调的就是后期展现。我现在想用“投稿”——“集群”——“digg”——“编辑手动选择、加工”这个程序把优秀的UGC内容提炼出来，我把这称为“网络挤奶器”，哈哈。我在考虑细节，近期实验。

最后用个粗略的分析来串联我上面所说的互动产品需要重视的三个方面。在ALEXA的排名中，上传视频的YOUTUBE 排名第3，远远高于上传图片的FLICKR，flickr排名44。按道理说，youtube上传视频的门槛要比filckr要大很多，但是为什么流量更高？看看两家的界面就知道了，fiickr纯粹是一个工具网站，用户产生的大量内容没有分类、组织、提炼，而youtube对用户内容的组织、提炼做了不少努力（虽然也不好），所以youtube不仅仅是一个可以让人“用”的网站，同时也是一个可以让人“看”的网站。所以从网站架构上考虑，youtube的用户门槛其实比flickr要低。所以当然流量大。